0:10 - Bitcoin's Historic Surge
7:55 - Market Dynamics and Support Levels
12:39 - Regulatory Changes on the Horizon
18:06 - The Future of Bitcoin Under Trump
20:14 - The Political Landscape and Cryptocurrency
22:06 - Understanding Crypto Economics
In this episode, we delve into the remarkable events surrounding Bitcoin's recent surge, which brought the price tantalizingly close to the $90,000 mark, marking one of its most significant trading days ever. We explore the implications of this price appreciation, which saw Bitcoin increase over 13% in a single day, and discuss how the closure of traditional financial markets over the weekend contributes to pent-up demand that often unleashes upon market reopening. I highlight the insights of prominent figures like Anthony Pompliano regarding the increasing interest from traditional finance in Bitcoin and related companies, such as Hut8, which provide essential infrastructure for Bitcoin mining.
In addition to examining Bitcoin's impressive price movement, we discuss the broader context of its performance over the last three months, where it has added over $26,000 to its price—a staggering 44% increase. Notably, we touch on the significant milestone of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in inflation-adjusted terms, a critical point that underscores the ongoing issues surrounding fiat currency and national debt. With the U.S. national debt ballooning by $850 billion in just three months, the role of Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement comes into sharper focus.
We also explore the potential influence of the upcoming halving event on Bitcoin’s value trajectory, recalling that previous halving years have historically preceded explosive price increases. Moreover, I present the intriguing rumors of impending nation-state purchases of Bitcoin and the possible ramifications for the ecosystem. The conversation shifts towards the political landscape, particularly with the prospect of a Bitcoin-friendly administration in the U.S. and potential changes to the regulatory environment, including the elimination of capital gains taxes on Bitcoin transactions.
The discussion further evolves to consider the strategic implications for Bitcoin mining and energy consumption, especially given the Republican party's pro-energy stance. I analyze the sentiment around the move towards using national currencies in global trade, as various nations express a desire to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, a trend likely to complement Bitcoin’s growth narrative.
We round off the episode with a discussion on the psychological factors affecting investor behavior related to Bitcoin prices, addressing how market sentiment can influence buying and selling decisions. This episode concludes with an invitation for deeper discussion, particularly regarding the philosophical implications of Bitcoin in today’s economic landscape and the potential shifts in the cryptocurrency space under new regulatory leadership.
[0:00] All right, 12th of November, 2024, Bitcoin had one of its most impressive days in its entire history just yesterday, almost hit 90K.
[0:11] These are US numbers up more than 13%. Now, one of the things that happened was Friday afternoon, it was at about 76K when the stock market closed. Now, remember, the stock market has closed more than it's open. So if there is activity in the market over the weekend, everyone's paralyzed and what happens is demand gets pent up and then when the markets open on the Monday, there's a big grab. Now, of course, if you have your own Bitcoins, you can buy and sell and trade on exchanges or wherever, then you can work on the weekend. But things shut down for Wall Street on the weekend, so there's a lot of pent up demand.
[0:58] So that's important to remember. So to finance TradFi wants Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related companies. And Anthony Pompliano, who's a great guy to follow, says, Take a look at Hut8, which provides power for Bitcoin mining and AI use cases. He's an advisor. The company saw its stock price increase by more than 50% over the last five days. During the last three months, Bitcoin has added more than $26,000 to the price. This is as of yesterday. It's a 44% increase. And that's pretty important. What's also important is the cross of $80,000, crossing over $80,000, signals the first time in years that Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high, ATH, in inflation-adjusted terms. Daniel Sampirpico highlights the previous all-time high of more than $69,000 is actually equivalent to over $80,000 in today's dollars. Isn't that wild? Isn't that wild just how much your seed crop is being eaten by the rats of central banking, right? This weekend's price appreciation put us over the new inflation-adjusted threshold.
[2:12] Institutional investors are keen to figure out Bitcoin and allocating to it. Some people are saying that they want to put their clients in at least 1% that they're going to opt them in unless they opt out. That would be pretty big. Of course, the halving year, I talked about this at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, 2020 was the last halving year. In 2020, Bitcoin went from about 15k in early November to over 60k in March of 2021. That's a 400%, more over 400% price appreciation in five months. That is, that is rare. That is rare. Financial advisors, as I mentioned. So somebody posted online. Additionally, there are rumors from some of those knowledgeable Bitcoiners that we will see a very large nation state purchase revealed in the coming months. Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey, which is different from bailout, claims a nation state has become a top five holder of Bitcoin recently, but no one is aware they purchased the Bitcoin. So I'll get into that in the donor section, what's going on with that and why that is so massively important in my humble opinion. Naturally, just to mention, of course, the usual, these are all my opinions I'm not a financial expert invest in your own caution do your own research do not take anything I say as any kind of investment advice, these are just amateur idiot opinions.
[3:42] And those are all the caveats okay, So, not only is the most pro-Bitcoin president going to the White House, and there's talk, of course, of removing the capital gains tax from Bitcoin profits, and that would draw a lot of Bitcoin expertise into the US. But it's not just Bitcoin, it's the energy sector, right? So, the leftists in general are hostile to energy, right? There's a great meme about, it's a picture of Three Mile Island, and it's like, so we had magic rocks that could boil water for virtually nothing and give us endless power, but then one of them caught fire, so we can't do that anymore. Can you imagine if when people had figured out how to start fires, one guy had burned his hut down, and therefore you could never use it again?
[4:37] Strange. change. So it is the fact that Republicans, you know, the drill baby drill, I mean, Republicans are very pro-energy. So because Republicans are pro-energy and energy fuels Bitcoin, the cost of mining and transfers is going to go down because the price of energy is going to go down, supply and demand. Trump previously committed to a Bitcoin strategic Reserve. Cynthia Loomis tweeted recently about the Strategic Reserve. Her post received more than 5.6 million views as of this morning. So, that is a huge, huge deal, if that would be the case. Of course, always we have to ask the foundational question, is Bitcoin becoming more valuable, or is fiat becoming less valuable? So, Charlie Belello pointed out, quote, U.S. national debt is absolutely exploding higher, increasing by $850 billion in just the last three months. In the past five years, we've seen a 56% increase. The federal government is borrowing from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today.
[5:53] So, during the last three months, Once Bitcoin added more than $26,000 to its price, that is a 44% increase. At the same time, the national debt increased by $850 billion, right?
[6:07] So, it's the usual hedge against currency debasement. Of course, as the national debt goes higher, the monetization of the debt, the money printing of debt, they're going to try and inflate their way out of it. And everyone sort of is trying to do this comparison of decentralized finance to traditional centralized finance and saying the relationship is between Wall Street and Bitcoin. It's a great case to be made that Bitcoin is actually screaming out about the national debt. And the most foundational relationship to keep in mind is not the relationship between Bitcoin and Wall Street, but between Bitcoin and the endlessly greedy democratic population and the spending like drunken sailors politicians. So that would be, of course, a little bit closer to my case. Bitcoin Canadian is holding steady in the high 120, which is, again, remarkable and amazing and powerful. Yeah, insulting to drunken sailors. That's true. That's true. Yeah, inverse Kramer is almost something else.
[7:19] All right, let me just check your questions. Always check Kramer. The inverse Kramer is such a meme. Yeah and it's reliable energy not windmills and solar panels and so on right so, if you have questions or comments i'm certainly certainly happy to hear, and uh otherwise i can keep on chugging with comments and then i'm going to give you the big economic philosophical view for donors, right?
[7:55] Because you guys keep this show cooking and I really, really appreciate it.
[8:03] So this is news.bitcoin.com. Key support and resistance levels are emerging. The immediate support lies at 86k, where recent corrections pours. The next significant support level appears on the daily chart around 80k, a prior breakout point. Resistance sits firmly at 89.983, Bitcoin's recent high with a psychological barrier at 90k. Breaking past these levels with substantial volume would be a bullish continuation signal, while failure to break resistance could lead to short-term consolidation phase. Yeah, it's so funny, right? I've never, I've never for the life of me understood why is it that people think that $9.99 is less than $10. $9.99, that's less than $10.
[8:48] It was one of my introductions to the profound stupidity of the herd as a whole, that people don't just round that up in their mind. Now, It was called The Kibbles. It was an old Douglas Adams book about taking funny names of towns in England and what they might be defined to. There was a great town called Eli. And Eli was that bad feeling, that creepy bad feeling you get when you're carrying plastic bags for the groceries and the handles keep getting longer because they're stretching out and get a break. Eli. I remember that book was very funny. But yeah why there's a psychological 90k is high 89 983 which is what 17 dollars less seven that's low uh what can i tell you i mean just adjust things in your head it's so much easier don't be manipulated right so of course i know that sometimes they made 9.99 so people would have to give change and so on, but it is just wild.
[9:49] Yeah, so if capital gains taxes are eliminated for Bitcoin sales, then that would be massive. That would be absolutely enormous with regards to that. So that would be an amazing, amazing thing. And will draw people to America in ways that have not been seen since the 18th century, 19th century. All right. um so yeah why there's a psychological barrier is just because people i don't know i don't know i don't know it's just weird uh last week black rocks ptui etf also set a record for single day inflows with 1.12 billion injected into its etf product a broader look at the market shows that the total net assets of bitcoin etfs is currently at 90.6 billion this is technically 5.27 percent of Bitcoin's total market cap, according to data from SoSoValue. Because the sort of 21 million thing, okay, a bunch of them have been lost, and a bunch of people aren't selling. And we'll get into more details about it in the donor view, but a bunch of people aren't selling. How many are actually available? I can't believe people are selling right now. Trading fiat? Trading Bitcoin for fiat? I don't know, man. It's like trading in Elizabeth Hurley in her prime for Jabba the hurt on his deathbed.
[11:15] The price of Bitcoin has surged over 12% against the US dollar in the past 24 hours. Excuse me, this is from yesterday, I think. Reaching a peak price by 6.40pm Eastern. It's one of the largest daily candles since 2021 and was, in fact, the largest single daily gain in Bitcoin's history. It went past silver in market cap. The uptick pushed Bitcoin's market cap to a substantial 1.75 trillion, highlighting its status as a financial powerhouse amid the ongoing bull market. Bitcoin futures open interest remains robust, currently at 53.42 billion, signaling sustained investor interest in the crypto's trajectory. Interest from institutional investors is also mounting as the 12-spot Bitcoin, ETFs have recorded 7.14 billion in settled trades today.
[12:06] So spot ETFs, of course, offer a more accessible gateway for traditional finance to enter the digital asset space. And once it goes to six figures, I mean, people's minds are going to be absolutely blown.
[12:23] Mara Betts on US Bitcoin development announces 372 megawatt Ohio developments. It's a wave of optimism activity in the cryptocurrency industry in the US. So that's pretty wild. Now, what is going to happen under Trump's new administration regarding crypto?
[12:40] Well, of course, nobody knows exactly, but this is the general idea. Cristiano Ventricelli, vice president for digital assets of Moody's ratings, this is from NewsBitcoin.com, discussed the potential implication of a Trump-led Republican administration on cryptocurrency regulations, suggesting a shift towards a more favorable environment for digital assets.
[12:59] So, over 280 pro-crypto candidates were elected to Congress. Ventricelli also remarked, quote, a Republican presidency may lead to a more accommodating stance towards cryptocurrencies, including the potential appointment of digital asset-friendly regulators. So, any legislative advancements are contingent upon congressional action, he clarified, while Republicans may eventually control both the House and Senate digital assets legislation will require bipartisan support cannot be achieved through budget reconciliation, and it's unclear whether the parties will reach a consensus in the short term. So of course the left hates crypto because you can't steal it i mean that's not wildly complicated that's not wildly complicated at all uh uae yeah united arab emirates has eliminated crypto capital gains tax so yeah that's going to be important right that's going to be important so.
[14:01] Republicans, it's interesting because Republicans are old school, and so you'd think that they'd be skeptical of something newfangled like crypto, but old school means gold standard, and gold standard means crypto acceptance, right? That's the general path. We need a gold standard, but crypto is even better, right? So gold standard is the gateway drug to Bitcoin acceptance. And so it's really interesting that the progressives reject, of course, crypto as a whole, whereas the conservatives, the old school traditional people embrace this like a OnlyFans addict hugging his monitor or something like that. So the anticipated leadership shift. I absolutely used to be able to talk. That was good times. Good times. The anticipated leadership shift at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission further underscores potential changes in the regulatory landscape.
[15:02] Trump has pledged to replace current SEC chair Gary Gensler, who has been widely criticized by the crypto sector for his regulation by enforcement strategy, which many industry leaders view as an impediment to innovation. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and others have called for a new SEC leader focused on transparency and a supportive regulatory framework. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce, known as CryptoMom, has received praise for her advocacy of a clear and innovation-friendly regulatory approach.
[15:32] So, support for Bitcoin and industry growth, positioning the U.S. As a global crypto hub, commitment to energy policies that boost crypto mining, establishing a crypto-friendly regulatory environment. And of course, Trump has rejected central bank digital currencies, otherwise known as digital nooses around your nuts. And they're going to work to maintain, we see, we hope to see over time, US government's Bitcoin stockpile, formation of a crypto advisory council. Are they going to free Ross Ulbricht or something like that? Economic promise for Bitcoin's future. President Donald Trump's Bitcoin and crypto promises. This is his keynote at Bitcoin 2024 conference. On day one, I'm Farah Gary Gensler. I'm a new SEC chairman. I will always defend the right to self-custody. There will never be a CDBC while I'm president. He's going to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served. He's a Silk Road guy, right? We will be creating so much electricity, America will become the world's undisputed Bitcoin mining powerhouse. It will be the policy of my administration to keep 100% of all the Bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future. What is it, Germany sold its Bitcoin at 57k? Oh my gosh. I will immediately appoint, says Trump, a Bitcoin and Crypto Presidential Advisory Council. Task is to design transparent regulatory guidelines for the entire industry, and then we'll get it done in 100 days.
[16:56] So, that is really, really something. Now, in Canada, there was, and I think it got pretty corrupt, you could invest in a particular fund that was tax-free, that was supposed to be for startups, and it got lots and lots of money. I don't think that the funds were allocated in the most economically efficient fashion, but the fact it was tax-free. So please, please understand that if they take off capital gains taxes off crypto, it's going to be a stampede like we've barely seen before, in my opinion, in human history. People are constantly running to get away from excessive taxation, and that is going to be something. So Elon Musk, of course, is going to do perhaps a chainsaw model. Right the chainsaw model is javier malay uh and uh that could be uh something something as well in terms of cutting costs in the u.s government which is good for the economy as a whole.
[18:06] Uh so that's really really something, so uh nation-state hyper bitcoinization that's really something and i'm going to get into this We're going to go in a few minutes to donor-only, and I'm going to unpack the massive philosophical view of all of this. That is going to be something that is absolutely shocking. Russia, India, and Africa advance bold plans to sideline the U.S. dollar. They're advancing their use of national currencies in trade, a strategy that signals a shift towards de-dollarization, the process of reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar for international transactions. During the first ministerial conference of the Russia-African Partnership Forum in Moscow, participants stressed the importance of strengthening their economic sovereignty by conducting transactions in local currencies. In a joint statement published by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the conference participants stated, quote, We underline the importance of expanding the use of national currencies in trade and financial transactions between the Russian Federation and the states of the African continent. They want to reduce exposure to fluctuations in the dollar and, of course, the massive amount of money. I mean, for a few percentage points of the money sent to Ukraine, they could have built the wall and everybody sees that overseas and kind of wants to get away from that kind of stuff.
[19:26] So, well, and I also think the fact that the UK has gone fairly Orwellian when it comes to policing people, people are being thrown in jail for memes and statements. And so America doesn't really feel, I think, the new administration, I would have had to guess, they don't feel any particular loyalty or alliance to Europe. So the fact that Europe arrested the telegram guy, the fact that Europe has threatened Elon Musk, the fact that they're fairly going all in on the totalitarian levels of censorship means that if the US and Europe don't feel that their values align at all.
[20:15] Then america will feel no particular obligation to fund the protection or the military defense of europe which is going to be something else it's yeah going from that what a pendulum right james what a pendulum to go to go from taxes on unrealized gains which was proposed under the left to no cap gains on tax on bitcoin is absolutely incredible well it's absolutely incredible, uh elections uh matter now they didn't really matter in the past but they matter now because of the internet thank you of course tips so very welcome freedomaine.com slash donate to help out uh the show i would really would appreciate that and let's just go and check if there are any comments over on the side of rumbleness.
[21:05] All right. Did you ever wish you had a son? Oh, I would love to have had a son. Absolutely. I just don't have to hold my breath for grandkids. Somebody says, I find comprehension of crypto quite hard and boring. Right. No, I mean, I get it. I get it. The problem with crypto is you need such a degree of economic literacy prior to looking into it that otherwise it's like building a plane that's taking off from the runway. So the fact that I studied Austrian economics and other forms of free market economics and gold standards in the history of currency, the fact that I had studied that from my mid-teens meant that I could hit the ground running when I first started talking about Bitcoin more than 10 years ago. I could hit that.
[21:45] Really quickly. So if you haven't really studied economics, I just happen to find it absolutely fascinating. I find it an absolutely cool thing to learn about economics because it's not obvious and it has you stretch your brain in new dimensions. It's not obvious. And so that I find is just really cool.
[22:06] But if you haven't studied economics, then trying to get up to speed with crypto and its value, it's almost like you just need to spend six to 12 months studying free market economics and then you can really start to build the business case. I'd already done that work just sort of by coincidence and by personal preference and all of that. I had already done all of that. So I was hot to trot and ready to roll. Ready to roll, baby, when Bitcoin first emerged. Suns are great, but it's also like trying to keep a tiny danger machine alive 24-7. Yes, there's validity in that, for sure. There's validity in that. We don't have the best self-preservation instincts because nature has dialed up our ambition to the max, which means it also dials down self-preservation instincts when you're young. Just part of the endless trade-offs of nature. all right so uh i'm gonna go donor only so if you want to join you can go to, fdrurl.com.
[23:08] Slash locals and uh we're gonna go there in 30 seconds you can join us there and uh i'm gonna blow blow your mind i i'm telling you i am absolutely gonna blow your mind, And I'm going to give you a big picture view that will leave your worldview totally shattered. All right. F-D-R-U-R-L dot com slash locals. You should join there. Join now or forever hold your peace. All right. So I'm going to go private here.
Support the show, using a variety of donation methods
Support the show
